CN1285068A - 用于金融顾问系统的用户接口 - Google Patents

用于金融顾问系统的用户接口 Download PDF

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CN1285068A
CN1285068A CN98813658.9A CN98813658A CN1285068A CN 1285068 A CN1285068 A CN 1285068A CN 98813658 A CN98813658 A CN 98813658A CN 1285068 A CN1285068 A CN 1285068A
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financial
user
financial product
changeableness
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杰夫·N·马吉昂卡尔达
克里斯托弗·L·琼斯
威廉·F·夏普
肯·范恩
艾伦·陶伯尔
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Edelman Financial Engines LLC
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Financial Engines LLC
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/06—Buying, selling or leasing transactions
    • G06Q30/0601—Electronic shopping [e-shopping]
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/03—Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/08—Insurance
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/12—Accounting

Abstract

描述一种用于金融顾问系统的用户接口。根据本发明的一个方面,用户可以交互地探索一种或多种输入决定,如风险容限、储蓄水平、及退休年龄的变化如何影响一个或多个输出值,如实现金融目标的概率或短期风险的指示。同时显示一个第一和第二可见指示。第一可见指示包括用来接收输入决定的输入机构,如滑动条。第二可见指示包括一组基于输入决定和一组推荐金融产品的输出值。在经输入机构接收对于输入决定的更新值之后,根据更新值可以确定一组新推荐的金融产品和一组新输出值。然后可以更新第二可见指示,以反映输出值的新组。根据本发明的另一个方面,可以校准用来接收投资风险希望水平的一个图形输入机构。接收一组适用金融产品,如一组互助基金;和一种预定易变性,如市场有价证券的易变性。根据适用金融产品组,限制与图形输入机构有关的设置。另外,图形输入机构单位的校准可以表示成在与图形输入机构设置有关的易变性与预定易变性之间的关系。

Description

用于金融顾问系统的用户接口
这里包含的是受到版权保护的材料。版权所有者不反对由任何人对专利公开的传真复制，就象它出现在专利和商标局专利文件或记录中那样，然而在别的任何方面保留对版权的所有权利。
本发明一般涉及金融顾问服务领域。更具体地说，本发明涉及一种用来建议用户考虑来自一组金融产品的可行和推荐产品的系统、和一种用于这样一种系统的用户接口。
适用于个从投资者的金融产品数量在最近几年一直在急剧增长，导致许多个人被供给他们的信息和选择吓倒。这里所使用的术语“金融产品”包括权利的合法表示(常常指要求权利或证券)，以在一定陈述条件下提供或接收预期未来收益。在任何情况下，个人购买金融产品以满足其需要，并且在个人中的需要变化很大。
在最近几年已经开发了多种计算机金融分析系统，以帮助个人选择最好的金融产品来满足其需要。这些系统一般根据例如关于抵押重新筹资、贷款分期偿还、退休计划、及投资比较方案的数学模型进行分析。
然而，典型的先有技术金融软件包在几个方面受到限制。先有系统的一个限制是其输出的二进位制本质。例如，给定一组表示诸如薪水、资产、和投资之类的初始金融状态的个人金融数据，由先有技术系统采用的典型简单的计算机将向用户指示他们或者实现一种金融目标或者不，而不顾实现目标的真正机会通常既不是0％也不是100％而是其之间的某个值的真实性。因此，由许多先有技术投资软件包提出的所谓“建议”可能使人误解。
而且，聚焦在投资上的一些先有技术的金融分析程序要求用户提供未来通货膨胀、利率及对其投资的预期收益的估计。如应该理解的那样，关于该方法的问题之一在于，允许用户产生不可行的远景方案。在该类型的先有技术系统中，用户可能，并且事实上鼓励，简单地增加预期投资收益，直到实现其希望的有价证券值。结果，用户可能根据不可获得的有价证券收益产生不实际的未来经济远景方案。
另外，在先有技术中用户与金融分析程序的交互作用具有由本发明克服的各种其他缺点。特别是，给定用户的特定投资和金融环境，先有技术系统一般不提供投资限度风险-收益折衷的实际估计。这使得关于投资风险的适当水平的通知判断非常困难。风险-收益折衷的观念对于现代有价证券理论是基本的，并且未能传达长期风险和收益的任何系统都不能提供对于做出通知投资决定基本的信息。鉴于上文，所需要的正是这样一种金融系统：使个人集中在今天必须做出的金融决定上，给定这些决定推荐一个或多个特定金融产品，及或许最重要的是，表明与推荐金融产品相结合的其金融决定在未来满足其要求的机会。
也希望包括一种通信基本风险-收益折衷的智能用户接口，以帮助个人估计投资选择。例如，希望提供这样一种系统：提供代表实现金融目标的概率而不是二进制结果的可见指示。而且，便利的是校准图形输入机构，从而由这些机构允许的输入范围根据适用产品实际上是可行的。另外，为了提供用户在金融产品适用组中做出通知选择的机会，希望呈现基于与特定推荐金融产品有关的预期结果的风险实际估计。重要的是，因为没有一种人们看待风险的方式，所以也希望呈现风险的各种观念，如短期风险、长期风险、及没有达到具体金融目标的风险。
描述一种用于金融顾问系统的用户接口。根据本发明的一个方面，用户可以交互地探索一种或多种输入决定如何影响一个或多个输出值。同时显示一个第一和第二可见指示。第一可见指示包括用来接收输入决定的输入机构，而第二可见指示包括一组基于输入决定和一组推荐金融产品的输出值。在一个实施例中，这些输出值包括推荐金融产品的预期未来值、和用户满足他的/她的目标的机会。在经输入机构接收对于输入决定的更新值之后，根据更新值可以确定一组新推荐的金融产品和一组新输出值。这样，可以更新第二可见指示，以反映输出值的新组。以这种方式，用户把精力集中到能进行的以实现一个或多个未来金融目标的有关决定、和改进决定的一个或多个的效果上。
根据本发明的第二方面，可以校准用来接收投资风险希望水平的一个图形输入机构。接收一组适用金融产品和一种预定易变性。根据适用金融产品组限制与图形输入机构有关的设置。结果，防止用户选择在实际适用可行风险组之外的风险水平。另外，图形输入机构单位的校准可以表示成在与图形输入机构设置有关的易变性与预定易变性之间的关系。
根据本发明的第三方面，向用户提供实现金融目标的概率。从用户接收金融目标。另外，接收概率分布基于的输入。例如根据输入，概率分布可以表示一组可能未来有价证券值。通过估计满足或超过金融目标的累计概率分布，确定实现金融目标的概率。最后，一个可见指示可以向用户提供实现金融目标的概率。
根据本发明的第四方面，向用户表示各方面的金融风险，以便帮助用户处理和控制金融风险。从用户接收金融目标。另外，接收包括概率分布基于的决定变量的输入。概率分布可以表示例如在用户具有一定量财产的时间上的概率。显示一个第一和第二可见表示。第一可见表示根据概率分布表明不实现金融目标的风险，而第二可见表示表明有价证券值在不久将来可能下降多少的短期风险。另外，也可以显示一个第三可见表示，以表示与决定变量有关的长期金融风险。便利的是，风险按照由特定决定和金融产品可能产生的结果表示，由此使用户能够选择与他的/她的风险偏爱一致的风险量。
根据本发明的第五方面，把在适用金融产品组中的财产推荐分配呈现给用户。接收决定输入和一组适用金融产品。金融产品的每一个具有有关的易变性。适用金融产品组由其相应易变性安排。对于每个金融产品根据决定输入确定财产的推荐分配，并且显示财产推荐分配的图形指示。图形指示包括与每个金融产品有关的图形段，这些图形段对于具体金融产品具有与财产推荐分配相对应的长度。
根据本发明的第六方面，根据用户规定的约束条件可以更新推荐。把在金融产品适用组中的财产当前推荐分配的图形指示提供给用户。图形指示包括每个具有与对于有关金融产品的当前推荐分配相对应的尺寸的图形段。一个选择图形段可以重新定尺寸，以在尺寸上对应于响应输入装置致动的用户希望分配。以后，重新推荐一个新的金融产品组，同时保持金融产品的分配与以用户希望分配固定的选择段相对应。然后，更新图形指示以表示新的推荐分配。便利的是，以这种方式，用户可以直接控制推荐有价证券和观察对推荐的影响。
由附图和由随后的详细描述，本发明的其他特征将是显而易见的。
在附图的图中举例而不是限制性地表明本发明，并且其中类似的标号指类似的元件，及在附图中：
图1表明根据本发明一个实施例的一种金融顾问系统。
图2是对其可以实施本发明一个实施例的一种计算机系统的一个例子。
图3是简化方块图，表明可以采用本发明的用户接口的金融分析系统的一个实施例。
图4表明根据本发明一个实施例的一种建议摘要屏幕。
图5A表明可以适用于用户的金融产品示范组。
图5B表明根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信决定变量的滑动条。
图6A-C表明根据本发明一个实施例的风险滑动条校准。
图7A表明一个两维曲线图，表示在时间上金融产品有价证券的可能值的范围。
图7B是图7A中描绘的曲线图的横截面，表明在具体时间的概率分布。
图7C是根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信实现金融目标的可能性的一组图标。
图8是流程图，表明一种根据本发明一个实施例指示实现金融目标的概率的方法。
图9表明根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信长期金融风险的图形装置。
图10表明根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信短期金融风险的图形装置。
图11是流程图，表明一种根据本发明一个实施例描绘推荐金融产品有价证券的方法。
图12A表明一种图形装置，根据本发明一个实施例该图形装置可以用来根据决定变量的当前状态和其他输入通信当前最佳有价证券分配。
图12B表明根据本发明一个实施例风险决定变量已经增大之后图12A的图形装置。
图13是流程图，表明一种根据本发明一个实施例基于用户规定约束条件更新推荐有价证券的方法。
图14A表明一种图形装置，根据本发明一个实施例该图形装置可以用来根据决定变量的当前状态通信当前最佳有价证券分配。
图14B表明在用户已经把约束条件强加在金融产品之一上之后图14A的图形装置。
描述一种用于金融顾问系统的用户接口。根据本发明的实施例，一个随机模拟器可以提供与各方面金融风险有关的信息，包括没实现具体金融目标的风险及短期和长期金融风险，以便帮助金融顾问系统的用户处理和控制这样的金融风险。本发明的其他方面允许用户把精力集中到他的/她的关于投资风险、储蓄、及退休年龄的决定上，同时交互地观察这些决定对可能投资结果的范围的影响。
在如下描述中，为了解释目的，叙述多个特定细节，以便提供本发明的彻底理解。然而，对于熟悉本专业的技术人员，显然可以实施本发明而不用这些特定细节的一些。在其他例子中，熟知的结构和装置以方块图形式表示。
本发明包括下面将描述的各步骤。本发明的步骤可以在机器可执行的指令中实施。指令能用来使借助于指令编程的一般目的或特殊目的的处理器执行本发明的步骤。另外，本发明的步骤可以由包含用来执行步骤的硬连线逻辑的专用硬件元件、或者通过编程计算机元件和定制硬件元件的任何组合进行。尽管参照金融顾问系统描述本发明的实施例，但这里描述的方法和设备同样可应用于其他类型的资产分配用途、金融计划用途、投资顾问服务、及金融产品选择服务、自动金融产品筛选工具，如电子个人采购代理等。
系统概述
本发明可以包括在如图1中所示的基于客户机-服务器的金融顾问系统100内。根据图1中描绘的实施例，金融顾问系统100包括一个金融分段服务器120、一个播出服务器115、一个内容服务器117、一个AdviceServerTM(建议服务器)110(AdviceServerTM是Financial Engines，Inc本发明的授予人，的商标)、及一个客户机105。
金融分段服务器120为了金融内容公布可以用作初级分段和生效区域。以这种方式，金融分段服务器120起数据仓库的作用。原源数据，典型为时间序列数据，可以在金融分段服务器120上精选和处理成分析有用的数据。在每月一次的基础上，或者批处理间隔可以是任意间隔，金融分段服务器120把从数据卖主得到的原时间序列数据从特定卖主的格式，转换成能贯穿金融顾问系统100使用的标准格式。各种金融引擎可以运行，以产生用于从卖主接收的数据的生效和质量保证的数据。在向播出服务器115公开最终分析数据之前，可以进行由金融引擎需要的分析数据的任何校准。
播出服务器115是一个数据库服务器。象这样，它运行RelationalDatabase Management Systerm(RDBMS)的一个例子，如MicrosoftSQL-ServerTM、OracleTM等。播出服务器115提供对所有基金信息和分析数据的单点访问。当诸如AdviceServer 110之类的建议服务器需要数据时，他们可以查询来自播出服务器数据库的信息。播出服务器115也可以填充内容服务器，如内容服务器117，所以AdviceServer 110的远程实施不需要直接与播出服务器115通信。
AdviceServer 110是用于客户机105的初级服务提供者。AdviceServer 110也起外部系统，如外部系统125，与播出服务器115或内容服务器117之间的代理的作用。AdviceServer 110是用来保持用户分布和有价证券数据的中央数据库仓库。以这种方式，可以完成正在进行的证券分析，并且可以触发警报，如下面进一步描述的那样。
根据描述的实施例，用户使用客户机软件可以与金融顾问系统100相互联系，并且接收来自后者的反馈，该客户机软件可以在浏览器应用程序内运行，或者作为用户的个人计算机105上的独立应用的桌面应用程序运行。客户机软件与起HTTP服务器作用的AdviceServer 110通信。
一种示范计算机系统
已经简要描述了金融顾问系统100的一个实施例，现在参照图2描述表示其中可以实施本发明的特征的示范客户机105或服务器的一种计算机系统200。计算机系统200包括用来通信信息的一根总线或其他通信装置201、和诸如处理器202之类的与总线201相联的用来处理信息的处理装置。计算机系统200进一步包括联接到总线201上用来存储信息和由处理器202执行的指令的一个随机存取存储器(RAM)或其他动态存储装置204(称作主存储器)。主存储器204也可以用来存储在由处理器202执行指令期间的临时变量或其他中间信息。计算机系统200也包括联接到总线201上用来存储静态信息和用于处理器202的指令的一个只读存储器(ROM)和/或其他静态存储装置206。
一个诸如磁盘或光盘之类的数据存储装置207和其相应驱动器也可以联接到计算机系统200上，用来存储信息和指令。计算机系统200也能经总线201联接到一个显示装置221上，如阴极射线管(CRT)或液晶显示器(LCD)上，用来向计算机用户显示信息。例如，预期有价证券特性的图形描绘、用于最佳有价证券的资产分配、指示短期和长期金融风险的图表、指示实现各种金融目标的概率的图标、及其他数据类型，可以在显示装置221上呈现给用户。典型地，一个字母数字输入装置222，包括字母数字和其他键，可以联接到总线201上用来把信息和/或命令选择通信到处理器202。另一种类型的用户输入装置是光标控制器223，如鼠标、跟踪球、或光标方向键，用来把方向信息和命令选择通信到处理器202并且用来控制在显示器221上的光标运动。
一个通信装置225也联接到总线201上，用来经例如因特网访问诸如AdviceServer 110之类的远程服务器、或其他服务器。通信装置225可以包括一个调制解调器、一个网络接口卡、或其他熟知的接口装置，如用来联接到以太网、令牌环、或其他类型网络上的那些。在任何情况下，以这种方式，计算机系统200例如可以经常规网络下部结构，如公司的因特网和/或因特网，联接到多个服务器上。
示范金融分析系统
图3是简化方块图，表明一种其中可以使用本发明一个实施例的金融顾问系统300。一般地，金融顾问系统300包括一个从一个用户接口(UI)360接收输入数据和把诸如概率分布之类的数据提供给UI 360的模拟模块340。模拟模块可以包括一个用来从随机分布经验产生抽取的模拟引擎。根据描述的实施例，模拟模块340进一步包括一个定价模块310、一个因子模块320、一个样式分析模块330、及一个有价证券优化模块350。
定价模块310可以产生用于一种或多种资产的定价数据。在一个实施例中，定价模块310产生用于三种资产(例如，短期债券、长期债券和美国证券)的定价数据。这些资产由用于模拟功能的模拟模块340用作核心资产。另一方面，核心资产可以是不同类型的资产，如美国证券和债券(在短期与长期债券之间不进行区分)。当然，也可以使用不同数量的核心资产。
在一个实施例中，定价模块310产生多个资产远景方案。每个远景方案是基于至金融顾问系统300的输入的同样可能结果。通过借助于定价模块310产生多个远景方案，金融顾问系统300可以产生对于不同预期资产估价的统计量。例如，金融顾问系统300可以为每个预期资产估价提供概率分布。
因子模块320从定价模块310接收核心资产定价数据，并且把数据映射到一组因子上。由因子模块320输出的因子由基于收益的样式分析模块330使用，以产生对于具体资产的样式暴露。因子模块和样式分析在先有技术中是熟知的，并且这里不更详细地描述。因子模块320和样式分析模块330可以完成如在William F.Sharpe的“资产分配：管理样式和性能测量”，Journal of PortfolioManagement，Vol.18.No.2中描述的功能，该文章由此通过参考包括。
有价证券优化模块350可以根据经UI 360提供给金融顾问系统300的输入，确定一种或多种最佳有价证券。有价证券优化可以以先有技术中已知的任何方式进行，并且不是本发明的中心。重要的是，模拟模块340可以驻留在一个服务器或其上UI 360驻留的相同计算机上。如下面进一步详细描述的那样，UI 360可以包括用于数据输入和输出的各种机构，以向用户提供分别与金融顾问系统300交互且从其接收反馈的装置。
可以包括本发明各种特征的金融顾问系统的进一步描述在标题为“金融顾问系统”、申请号为No_、申请于_的共同待决美国专利申请中公开，并且一种定价核的进一步描述在标题为“用于金融顾问系统的定价核”申请号为No._、申请于_的共同待决美国专利申请中公开，这两个专利授予本发明的授予人，并且两者由此通过参考被包括。
示范建议摘要屏幕
UI 360试图帮助用户在其中金融产品的数量和与其相关的决定可能是吓人的领域挑选正确金融产品以满足他的/她的需要。根据一个实施例，UI 360通过使用户把精力集中在有关决定上并且通过模拟结果向用户表示各种风险观念，帮助用户挑选正确的产品，这些模拟结果基于满足用户当前决定值的推荐金融产品组。
图4表明根据本发明一个实施例的一种建议摘要屏幕400。根据描述的实施例，建议摘要屏幕400包括三个独立区域：(1)一个用于决定的区域410，(2)一个用来描绘输出值(也称作结果)的区域420，及(3)一个用来描绘推荐金融产品的区域430。
区域410在一个地方安排所有的决定。而先有技术系统，如退休计算机，常常使用户在一个地方提供假设、数据和决定，根据描述的实施例，决定保持分开。例如，在一个实施例中，诸如滑动条之类的图形输入机构在显示器的预定部分中聚积在一起，该预定部分与输出值和推荐金融产品分开。以这种方式，用户不会混淆用户能控制和改变的东西(例如，通货膨胀、对于具体金融产品的收益率)。而且，区域410可以呈现约束的决定组。就是说，可以仅呈现用户需要关心的有关决定。本实施例的另一个特征在于这样的事实：决定总是可行的，并且在一些情况下额外限制为最佳。下面讨论输入机构的校准。
重要的是，决定变量可以从执行过程到执行过程变化。例如，在退休计划系统中，决定变量可以包括如下的一个或多个：风险、储蓄水平、及退体年龄。相反，抵押分析包可以包括决定变量，如房屋成本、抵押时间长度、及定金量。下面进一步描述允许用户规定决定变量值的示范输入机构。
根据决定，有价证券优化模块350产生金融产品的推荐组，并且模拟引擎预计持有推荐的特定金融产品的结果。区域420把与推荐决定和金融产品组有关的所有输出值安排在一个地方。例如，在一个实施例中，输出值的图形表示在显示器的一个预定部分中聚积在一起，该预定部分与决定和推荐金融产品分开。构成适用于用户的输出值，以允许用户获得满足其目标函数的一组金融产品。例如，一些个人在未来具有一定量货币的需要，而其他人可能具有避免短期损失的需要。一般用目标函数指的是个人在做出决定时认为是重要的标准。在本发明的各实施例中，输出值可以包括：实现预定目标的累计概率、给定有价证券在时间中一些未来点处的最可能值、在以后12个月内以5％概率可能发生的金融损失、及基于由模拟引擎采用的概率分布的各种其他统计量。
不同的输出值可能适于不同的人们。因此，通过在区域420中多个不同输出值，向用户给出聚焦在什么输出值可能吸引他们能力。在一个实施例中，建议屏幕400的该部分可能是适用的。就是说，用户可以选择显示与满足他的/她的目标函数有关的一个或多个输出值。重要的是，输出值可以以各种顺序显示，并且不是所有输出值都需要同时显示。
应该理解，不同的输出值可能也适用于不同的问题。例如，在退休计划系统中，可能希望具有描绘短期和长期金融风险及实现金融目标的累计概率的输出值。而抵押分析包可以包括这样的输出值，如现金流动、抵押支付在5年内的可能最大值、碰到可调整利率抵押的顶部的概率、对于具体固定成本抵押比具体可调整利率抵押支付较高利率成本的概率等。
区域430向用户呈现得到在区域420中描绘的结果要采取的行动。例如，根据用户的决定可以提供推荐金融产品的指示。另外，应该分配到上每种金融产品上的用户财产的推荐比例可以用文本和/或图形通信。区域430的另一个功能把由决定产生的所有行动安排在一个地方。例如，在一个实施例中，推荐金融产品的图形表示在显示器的一个预定部分中聚积在一起，该预定部分与决定和输出值分开。
区域410、420、和430可以由模拟引擎和有价证券优化模块350系在一起。例如，有价证券优化模块350对于给定决定组可以产生金融产品的优化组。而且，通过预计拥有由有价证券优化模块350推荐的金融产品组的结论，把模拟引擎连接到结果上。
在描述的实施例中，同时显示区域410、420、和430。然而，在另外的实施例中，可以同时显示区域的两个，而第三区域可以显示另一屏幕上或者以后显示。例如，一个描绘用来接收输入决定的输入机构的可见指示、和一个描绘基于输入决定的一组输出值的指示可以同时显示，由此允许用户响应对输入决定的一个或多个的变化观察对输出值的更新。然后，当用户满意输出值时，他/她可以观察输出值基于的推荐金融产品。
示范决定-相关的功能性
A．滑块校准
UI 360可以提供图形输入机构，以便允许用户提供用于一个或多个决定变量输入的值。如早先讨论的那样，一些先有技术金融分析程序的一个缺点在于，用户经常提交不可行的未来远景方案，并且因此自由地选择不是最佳的金融产品的集合。就是说，用户接口不把用户的输入限制到特定适用金融产品上，并且不能消除占优势的金融产品的组合。占优势的决定是指一种其中用户绝对能使他/她本人在一个方面情况更好而不使他/她本人在任何其他方面情况更坏的决定。在本发明的实施例中，可以消除各种占优势的决定。例如，系统可以假定推荐有价证券应该位于高效边界上。
作为本实施例的一个特征，根据适用于用户的一组适用金融产品，可以限制与投资风险有关的图形输入机构的各种位置(设置)。
图5A表示可以适用于用户的一个示范组的金融产品。金融产品，在该例子中的互助基金，可以是例如经雇主的401(k)程序适用的投资。根据一个实施例，金融产品可以按其收益的易变性顺序列出。在该例子中，Vanguard Bond Fund比Vanguard Mony Market更易变，Equity Income比Mony Market和Bond Fund更易变，并且Vanguard Small Cap Fund是组中最易变的基金。
现在参照图5B，描述示范图形输入机构。根据本发明的一个实施例，滑动条是通过其在模拟器与用户之间通信关于决定变量的值的机构。例如，用户可以通过用输入装置选择适当滑块和把滑块运动到一个新位置，来修改一个具体决定变量的当前值。根据描述的实施例，模拟器的概率分布基于的决定变量包括用户的风险容限、用户的储蓄率、及用户的希望退休年龄。因此，在该例子中，UI360包括至少三个滑动条，包括一个风险滑动条500、一个储蓄率滑动条520、及一个退休年龄滑动条530。
风险滑动条包括一个左端点505、一个右端点515、及一个滑块510。左端点505表示最低风险可行有价证券，而右端点515表示最高风险可行有价证券。用户可以通过把滑块510定位在左端点505与右端点515之间(包括端点)的任何处，来指示他的/她的对于金融分析系统的风险偏爱。为了保证风险滑块510的每个位置都在适用于用户的可行风险组内，根据适用于用户的金融产品组校准风险滑动条500。最好，模拟模块340通过仅推荐对于具体风险水平产生最高收益的金融产品的有价证券，另外把用户保持在高效边界上。这意味着当用户定位风险滑块510时，模拟模块340可以构造一种来自对于规定风险水平具有最高收益的金融产品适用组的有价证券。例如，假定把风险滑动条500校准到图5A中所示的互助基金组，那么把风险滑块510定位在左端点505处，对应于具有风险等效于或小于Vanguard Mony Market Fund的最高收益有价证券。类似地，把滑块510定位在右端点515处，对应于具有风险等效于或小于Vanguard Small Cap Fund的最高收益有价证券。便利的是，以这种方式，UI360通过风险滑动条500防止用户选择在实际适用于用户的可行风险组之外的风险水平。
应该理解，可以类似地把储蓄率滑动条520和退休年龄滑动条530限制到可行值。例如，可以把储蓄率滑动条520限制到在零与对于诸如401(k)之类的具体帐户型的最大分担之间的值。而且，可以把退休年龄滑动条530限制到用户的当前年龄与例如参照精算数据可以确定的上约束之间的允许值。
B．风险输入机构对于预定易变性的有关设置
图6A-C有助于描述根据本发明一个实施例的风险滑动条605的校准。例如，图6A描绘一种可以提供以允许用户规定希望投资风险水平的风险滑动条605。风险滑动条605包括一个滑块615、和当前易变性的指示610。例如，根据一个实施例，风险滑动条605的易变性表示为预定易变性的比例，如市场有价证券的易变性或平均个人投资者的有价证券的易变性。市场有价证券是在所有适用资产中包括价值加权投资的有价证券。
返回该例子，如图6A中描绘的那样，风险滑动条605使其滑块615定位在最左设置601中。最左设置601对应于与适用金融产品组中的金融产品的最低易变性混合有关的易变性。在该例子中，风险滑块605的当前易变性610是0.3x，指示与风险滑动条615的当前设置有关的易变性是预定易变性的30％易变性。如下面讨论的那样，由有价证券优化模块350推荐的金融产品的易变性对应于风险滑块的当前设置601。
现在参照图6B，风险滑动条605表示成使滑块615定位在中点设置602处。根据该实施例，中点设置602对应于预定易变性。同样，用于风险滑动条605的单位按照设置602的易变性表示为预定易变性的比例，如市场有价证券的易变性。在该例子中，风险滑块的设置602的当前值607是1.0X，指示与滑块的当前设置602有关的易变性等于预定的易变性。
现在参照图6C，风险滑动条605的最右设置603反映与适用金融产品组中的金融产品的最高易变性混合有关的易变性。同样，用于风险滑动条605的单位按照设置603的易变性表示为预定易变性的比例，如市场有价证券的易变性。在该例子中，风险滑块605的设置的当前值608是2.5X，指示与滑块的当前设置603有关的易变性是预定易变性的250％的易变性。
滑动条605的每种设置(例如601、602、603)对应于唯一的易变性、和其易变性等于该易变性的推荐金融产品组。便利的是，以上述方式，用户可以选择他的/她的金融产品的有价证券相对于预定易变性的希望易变性。通过把滑块615定位在中点602处可以选择具有易变性等于预定易变性的有价证券。如果用户喜欢推荐有价证券的易变性比预定易变性小，那么用户可以把滑块615定位在中点602的左边。类似地，如果用户喜欢推荐有价证券的易变性比预定易变性大，那么用户可以把滑块615运动到中点602右边的一个位置。而且，应该理解，与中点602有关的易变性将保持相同，而与金融产品适用组的组成无关。
尽管仅描述滑块615的三个不同位置，但应该理解，沿风险滑动条605可以布置任何数量的位置，并且每个位置可以与通过把常数乘以有价证券易变性除以预定易变性定义的易变性测量有关。
用于通信输出值(结果)的示范机构
A．通信来自概率分布的概率的示范方式
图7A的曲线图700相对于时间表示金融产品有价证券的可能值范围。从当今具有当前值的一组金融产品开始，考虑到分担和退出这些金融产品可能如何增长的多个远景方案可以由模拟模块340运行。对于每个时间段产生概率分布的过程可以是一个模拟引擎、一张由一个模拟引擎填充的查阅表、或由模拟引擎产生的概率分布的分析近似。熟悉本专业的普通技术人员将理解，可以采用各种其他机构来产生这样一种概率分布。
曲线图700的竖轴表示美元，而横轴例如按用户的年龄表示时间。曲线图700进一步包括一根上限线705、一根下限线715、及一根中线710。对于在时间中的每个点，有这样一种概率：价值，在该例子中为美元，高达目标720。
在该例子中，中线710表示在时间中的特定点达到相应美元值的50％机会。上限线705可以表示上侧5％的尾部。下限线715可以表示下侧5％的尾部。在时间中的每片表示概率分布的横截面。图7B表示曲线图700的横截面，表明在特定时间片a1处的概率分布。
再返回到图7A，在特定横截面的中间范围有较高的概率，而在尾部有较低的概率。在特定时间处的百分之九十的结果将落在上限线705与下限线715(包括两根线)之间。在时间a1处与点x1至x4有关的示范概率为如下值：(1)美元值大于或等于x1有5％的机会；(2)美元值大于或等于x2有5％与50％之间的机会；(3)美元值等于或大于x3有50％的机会；及(4)美元值等于或大于x4有95％的机会。
作为本发明的一个优点，而不是呈现误导的二进制结果或向用户表示支持概率740的描绘，用户接口使用表示一定概率水平的一定图标，可以以图示形式通信用户达到金融目标的累计概率。在预定概率水平与用来表示预定概率水平的图标之间可以建立一一对应。
示范图标组750表示在图7C中。天气主题由图标组750用来通信实现目标720的可能性。应该理解，可以采用各种其他主题。在任何情形下，根据该实施例，图标760-769每个包括五个基本元素的一个或多个：天空、云彩、太阳、太阳光线、及数字预测。在一个实施例中，基本元素的显示每个可以取决于实现目标720的可能性。例如，在一定的预定阈值处，可以包括各种元素，或者从要显示的图标排出各种元素。在描述的例子中，图标组750的范围从具有阴暗天空的乌云的图形描绘至具有晴朗天空的明亮太阳和太阳光线。随着实现目标720的可能性增大，天气景色变得更亮。在该例子中，最低概率由图标760表示。图标760包括阴暗暴风云，并且表示小于5％的实现目标机会。直到实现目标的概率达到50％为止，云彩完全遮住太阳。然而，随着概率增大云彩变薄。图标761表示用户具有10％的机会实现他的/她的目标。图标762表示20％的机会。图标763表示30％实现目标的机会。图标764表示40％实现目标的机会。最后，在表示50％实现目标机会的图标765中，太阳开始从云彩后露出。图标766表示60％实现目标的机会。图标767表示70％实现目标的机会。参照图标768和769，一旦有80％或更好的实现目标的机会，云彩就已不存在，并且太阳的光线成为可见的。尽管在该例子中天气主题用来向用户通信概率，但应该理解，能使用各种其他比喻。
根据本发明的一个实施例，当用户修改决定变量，如退休年龄时，估计概率分布，并且向用户显示适当的图标，如下面进一步描述的那样。
图8是流程图，表示根据本发明一个实施例指示实现金融目标的概率的一种方法。在步骤805，接收目标。目标可以从用户接收，或者例如可以从在与系统的早先对话期间建立的用户分布检索它。目标可以表示一种诸如退休收入目标之类的金融目标，或者象为房屋的定金或孩子大学教育省钱之类的一些中间目标。在投资的上下文中，一般概率分布表示相对于时间有价证券值一定量货币的概率。
在步骤810，接收概率分布基于的值。例如，在金融计划软件的上下文中，这些值可以包括具体的推荐金融产品、当前和预期经济条件、及关于用户的储蓄水平和时间限度的用户输入。
在步骤815，模拟引擎根据在步骤810接收的值产生用于时间中未来点未来值的分布。根据一个实施例，估计概率分布可以包括使用模拟值分布的分析近似。另一方面，可以由模拟引擎预先产生一张数值表，在该情况下，估计包括从与在步骤810接收的值相对应的查阅表接收数据。
以这种方式，确定对于具体时间限度的结果范围。例如，在估计退休目标的情况下，时间限度表示用户声明的希望退休年龄。再参照图7A，对于具体时间限度的结果范围表示两维曲线图700的横截面，例如，在下限线715与上限线705之间的值(包括两者)。
在步骤825，根据满足或超过用户目标的累计概率确定用户实现目标的可能性。例如，如果用户的目标是具有特定的年退休收入，那么确定实现大于或等于指定收入的累计概率。
在步骤830，向用户提供实现目标的可能性指示。根据一个实施例，显示对应于在步骤825确定的可能性的图标。以这种方式，在容易理解的图形画面中总结预测。
应该理解，上述反馈机构在相互作用的环境中也是有用的。例如，当用户操纵诸如滑动条之类的用户接口机构时，可见指示可以实时地改变。通过致动输入装置(例如，鼠标、跟踪球、光笔等)，滑块可以由用户移动到新位置。在占用输入装置时，对于滑动条的每个新位置，可以重复步骤810至830。以这种方式，预测图标将反映在滑动条当前位置处的预测，并且当滑动条运动到各种位置时，用户以改变预测图标的形式接收反馈。例如，在采用图7B的天气预报图标的实施例中，当滑块由用户移动时，天气改变。当停用输入装置时，最后显示的图标保持在显示器上。
尽管以上实施例描述了通过改变时间限度来改变用户实现目标的概率，但应该理解，有多种改变概率的其他方法。例如，目标可以升高或降低，储蓄水平可以增大或减小，及投资风险可以修改。B．长期风险的描绘
图9表明根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信长期金融风险的一种图形装置900。在描绘的实施例中，图形装置900包括一个菱形930，菱形930带有金融目标910、上部退休收入920、预期退休收入950、及基金值940的指示。在该例子中，金融目标910表示退休收入目标。应该理解，也可以表示各种其他金融目标，如储蓄目标和其他中间目标。在该实施例中，上部退休收入920表示有5％的机会用户在指定退休年龄具有指示的退休收入。预期退休收入950表示基于当前决定变量的预期退休收入。基金值940表示5％最坏情形的退休收入。应该理解，可以使用各种其他概率，并且这样的概率也可以是用户可配置的。
在另外的实施例中，长期风险的指示可以由各种其他图形装置传送，如上述的预测图标，或者长期风险可以简单地由数字指示，并且由伴随的文本描述。长期风险的其他例子例如包括不实现金融目标的概率、在某一概率下可能发生的损失大小或者要不然、实现某类型损失的概率。而且，长期风险指示可以包括在风险度量下的各种值。
C．短期风险的描绘
图10表明根据本发明一个实施例可以用来通信短期金融风险的一种图形装置1000。根据描绘的实施例，图形装置包括一个圆形图1000。在该实施例中，圆形图1000表示用户的总财产，并且向用户表示在较短时间段内可能损失多少。圆形图1000包括两片：一个第一片1010和一个第二片1020。第一片1010用图形表明损失与第一片1010的尺寸相对应的量的5％下部机会。第二片1020用图形表明在这样一种损失之后剩余的财产量。同样，可以采用各种其他概率值。
在另外的实施例中，短期风险可以由各种其他图形装置通信，如上述的预测图标，或者短期风险可以简单地由数字指示，并且由伴随的文本描述。
重要的是，尽管在图9和10中已经分别表明和讨论了用来传送短期和长期金融风险的示范图形装置，但区域420可以同时在相同的屏幕上以及单独地显示金融风险的多个方面和各种其他输出值。
建议屏幕400和UI360的区域一般可以包括各种其他输出值。例如，用户可以发现有用的是，知道对于一定的退休收入能够在具体年龄范围期间或在具体年龄下退休的概率是多少。另外，一些用户希望可能希望知道对于具体金融目标的预期时间量是多少，或可能最坏损失是多少(例如，最大减少)。
与推荐金融产品有关的示范功能性
A．推荐金融产品有价证券的实时描绘
图11是流程图，表明一种根据本发明一个实施例描绘推荐金融产品的方法。在步骤1110，确定使用户的利用率最大的金融产品组合。该推荐金融产品组是给定由用户指定的一个或多个决定变量-可以包括风险偏爱、储蓄水平、及时间限度-提供最高投资收益的组。根据一个实施例，推荐金融产品组布置在包括适用金融产品组的高效边界上。高效边界是由决定变量的一个或多个指明的、并且限制成使用户的利用率最大的推荐金融产品有价证券的空间。最好，高效边界确定考虑到储蓄水平的一个或多个及时间限度。
在步骤1120，接收一个更新决定变量。根据一个实施例，用户通过调节相应滑块的位置可以修改风险、储蓄、和/或退休年龄决定变量。然而，可以使用各种其他输入机构，图形的和/或文本的，来接收决定变量值。例如，在另外的实施例中，可以为决定变量的输入提供文本输入域。
在步骤1130，模拟模块340根据对于决定变量的当前值确定在适用于用户的金融产品中财产的最佳分配。
在步骤1140，向用户以图形形式呈现在步骤1130中确定的最佳分配。如上面那样，当用户操纵图形输入机构(例如，滑动条)时，可以实时提供呈现给用户的图形反馈。例如，当占用诸如光标控制装置223之类的输入装置时，对于选择滑动条的每个新位置可以重复步骤1120至1140。以这种方式，在金融产品中财产最佳分配的图形描述将反映在滑动条当前位置处的推荐，并且当滑动条移动到各种位置而不释放输入装置时，用户接收动态曲线图形式的反馈。
根据一个实施例，其中描绘最佳金融产品分配的图形形式包括图12A和12B中表明的条形图。图12A描绘屏幕1200在更新决定变量值接收前的示范状态。根据描绘的实施例，屏幕1200包括一个条形图1230和用来接收输入决定值的一个或多个诸如风险滑动条1210之类的滑动条。条形图1230包括一列适用金融产品1220-1227。金融产品1220-1227的每一个相邻于一个相应图形段显示，该图形段在该例子中为一条，具有表示根据当前推荐分配给具体金融产品的财产百分比的尺寸(长度)。例如，财产的当前推荐分配建议31％分配到金融产品1221，50％分配到金融产品1222，7％分配到金融产品1223，及5％分配到金融产品1224。在本例子中，适用金融产品1220-1227另外从顶到底以增大金融产品收益的易变性的顺序组织。当然，依据执行过程可能需要另外的排序和分配单位，如美元量。风险滑动条1210包括当前易变性的指示1215和一个滑块1211。在该状态，风险滑动条1210具有.75x的易变性度量。
假定用户增大风险，图12B表示屏幕1200在从风险滑动条1210接收新决定变量值后、及屏幕1200已经用由有价证券优化模块350提供的新最佳分配更新之后的示范状态。风险滑动条1210现在具有1.25x的易变性度量，并且条形图1230指示与更新风险容限值相对应的推荐金融产品分配。新的分配建议用户分担的38％分配到金融产品1224，25％分配到金融产品1225，及37％分配到金融产品1226。
尽管参照特定决定变量，风险容限，描述了图12，但应该理解，可以以类似方式处理各种其他决定变量的新值接收。
B．推荐金融产品组的修改
情形可能是用户想修改推荐金融产品组。比如，希望持有比推荐的多或少的金融产品。在这种情况下，用户可以修改建议，由此使系统考虑到用户的修改而更新推荐金融产品。由UI360提供另一种机构，称作用户约束条件，以允许用户通过修改由系统提供的推荐分配来表示他的/她的利用率函数。一般地，用户约束条件起另一种决定输入的作用。更具体地说，用户限制条件提供用户通过操纵推荐金融产品约束一种或多种金融产品的持有的能力。在一个实施例中，响应接收约束条件，有价证券优化模块350优化剩余的无约束金融产品，从而作为整体的有价证券推荐用户的约束条件，并且对于用户的风险容限水平是最佳的。例如，用户可以表示他的/她的希望：在他的/她的有价证券中持有一定百分比的一种具体金融产品，或者用户可以表示他的/她的偏爱：一种具体金融产品不保持在他的/她的有价证券中。在接收到约束条件时，有价证券优化模块350确定在无约束金融产品中的分配，从而推荐的有价证券作为整体具有最高的利用率。便利的是，以这种方式，具有不同于平均变量因素的利用率函数的个人提供有一种直接操纵推荐金融产品以通信其利用率函数的机构。
图13是流程图，表明一种根据本发明一个实施例基于用户约束条件更新推荐有价证券的方法。在步骤1310，检测金融产品的图形段的选择。在步骤1320，根据光标控制运动可以重新定选择段的尺寸。在步骤1330，当重新定尺寸完成时，锁定与图形段有关的值。在步骤1340，推荐一新组金融产品。例如，依据用户约束条件通过确定在剩余金融产品中的财产最佳分配，可以重新优化无约束条件的金融产品。在步骤1350，用图形描绘对于无约束条件的金融产品的推荐最佳分配。应该理解，选择和操纵图形段的多种其他方式是可能的。例如，在诸如字母数字输入装置222之类的键盘上的一定按键可以用来致动各种图形段，并且其他键可以用来增大或减小当前分配。
同样，象以上那样，当用户操纵图形段的尺寸时，可以实时地提供呈现给用户的图形反馈。
图14A描绘屏幕1400在约束条件接收之前的示范状态。在该例子中，屏幕1400包括描绘在金融产品组1220-1227中的当前财产分配的条形图1430。图14B表明在用户已经把一个约束条件强加到金融产品之一上之后、且在屏幕1400已经用由有价证券优化模块350提供的新最佳分配更新之后屏幕1400的示范状态。在该例子中，用户已经把财产对金融产品1223的分配限制到18％。根据描绘的实施例，在锁定图形段(步骤1330)之后，显示一个块1450以提醒用户约束条件。
C．偏爱的自我说明
通过采用上述的UI元件，用户可以操纵决定变量和/或推荐有价证券，并且同时看到结果组的影响。现在简要地描述该偏爱自我说明过程。根据本发明的一个实施例，在与金融顾问系统100的初始对话期间，用户可以提供关于风险偏爱、储蓄偏爱、当前年龄、性别、收入、预期收入增长、当前帐户平衡、当前金融产品持有量、当前储蓄率、退休年龄目标、退休收入目标、适用金融产品、中期和长期目标、对基金持有量的约束条件、债务、预期分担、洲和联邦税等级(边际和平均)的信息。用户可以提供用于其本身和其家庭中每个分布个人的信息。该信息可以存储在金融顾问系统100中的一个或多个文件中，最好在服务器之一上以允许完成正在进行的计划监视。在本发明的其他实施例中，可以由用户提供另外的信息，例如，未来社会证券收益或预期遗产的估计。
在任何情况下，根据用户的当前持有量和由用户输入的其他数据，金融顾问系统100可以提供各种输出值。模拟模块340可以根据推荐金融产品组和当前决定，例如包括风险偏爱、储蓄率、及希望退休年龄，提供未来有价证券值的概率分布。另外，鉴于用户的金融目标、当前决定变量、及概率分布，模拟模块340就使取决于当前决定变量的利用率最大的推荐有价证券而论，可以向用户提供一种可以产生一系列建议行动的初始诊断。
一旦用户已经向金融顾问系统提供任何必需的信息，就可以开始修改决定变量值的交互过程、观察与当前决定变量值有关的一个或多个输出值的变化、及看到产生该具体变化的推荐金融产品。提供反馈和用户调节决定的该系统过程可以继续，直到用户已经实现希望决定值组和产生希望结果组的金融产品。便利的是，使用该交互方法，永远不会要求用户预计与利率、通货膨胀、预期有价证券收益、或估计经济变量和参数的其他困难有关的未来值。
在以上说明中，参照其具体实施例已经描述了本发明。然而，显然对其可以进行各种改进和变更，而不脱离本发明较广阔的精神和范围。说明书和附图因而认为是说明性的，而没有限制意义。

Claims (35)

1．在一种金融分析系统中，一种允许用户交互地探索一种或多种输入决定中的变化如何影响一个或多个输出值的方法，该方法包括步骤：
同时显示
一个第一可见指示，描绘用来接收一个或多个输入决定的输入机构，和
一个第二可见指示，描绘一组输出值，输出值组基于一个或多个输入决定和一个推荐金融产品组；
经一个或多个描绘的输入机构接收对于一个或多个输入决定的更新值；
根据更新值确定一个新推荐金融产品组和一个新输出值组；及
更新第二可见指示，以反映输出值的新组。
2．根据权利要求1所述的方法，进一步包括显示一个描绘推荐金融产品组的第三可见指示的步骤，推荐金融产品组取决于一个或多个输入决定。
3．根据权利要求2所述的方法，其中同时显示第一、第二和第三可见指示。
4．根据权利要求1所述的方法，输出值组包括实现金融目标的概率。
5．根据权利要求2所述的方法，其中输出值组一起聚积在显示器的一个第一预定部分中，而推荐金融产品组一起聚积在显示器的一个第二预定部分中。
6．根据权利要求3所述的方法，其中输出值组一起聚积在显示器的一个第一预定部分中，推荐金融产品组一起聚积在显示器的一个第二预定部分中，及输入机构一起聚积在显示器的一个第三预定部分中。
7．根据权利要求1所述的方法，其中一个或多个输入决定包括风险水平和储蓄水平。
8．在一种金融分析系统中，一种校准图形输入机构的方法，该图形输入机构允许用户指定一个希望的投资风险水平，该方法包括步骤：
接收一组适用金融产品；
根据适用金融产品组限制与图形输入机构有关的设置；
接收一个预定易变性；及
形成在图形输入机构的设置与预定易变性之间的关系。
9．根据权利要求8所述的方法，其中适用金融产品组与一种易变性有关，限制与图形输入机构有关的设置的步骤进一步包括把设置限制为位于最低易变性设置与最高易变性设置之间的步骤，最低易变性设置与适用金融产品组中的最低易变性金融产品的易变性有关，而最高易变性设置与适用金融产品组中的最高易变性金融产品的易变性有关。
10．根据权利要求8所述的方法，其中图形输入机构的每种设置与一种易变性有关，及其中每种易变性与适用金融产品组的子组有关。
11．根据权利要求10所述的方法，其中图形输入机构包括一个风险滑动条。
12．根据权利要求8所述的方法，其中图形输入机构包括一个风险滑动条。
13．根据权利要求11所述的方法，其中风险滑动条具有一个中点设置，并且相对于预定易变性定义与中点设置有关的易变性。
14．根据权利要求13所述的方法，其中相对于与市场有价证券有关的易变性定义预定易变性。
15．根据权利要求13所述的方法，其中图形输入机构的每种设置与一种单位有关，及其中按照在与设置有关的易变性与预定易变性之间的关系表示该单位。
16．一种向用户提供实现金融目标的概率指示的方法，该方法包括步骤：
a．从用户接收金融目标；
b．接收概率分布基于的一个或多个输入，概率分布表示基于一个或多个输入的一组未来有价证券值；
c．通过估计满足或超过金融目标的累计概率分布，确定实现金融目标的概率；及
d．响应确定步骤，向用户提供实现金融目标的概率指示。
17．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中多个概率值的每一个与一个对应图标有关，及其中向用户提供实现金融目标的概率的可见指示的步骤进一步包括显示与实现金融目标的概率相对应的图标的步骤。
18．根据权利要求17所述的方法，其中多个图标包括由各种云彩、太阳、和天空组成的天气预报图标。
19．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中金融目标表示为具有具体的时间限度。
20．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中概率分布由一个模拟器产生。
21．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中通过从查阅表检索值得到概率分布。
22．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中通过模拟值分布的分析近似产生概率分布。
23．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中金融目标包括退休生活标准目标。
24．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中一个或多个输入包括风险水平和储蓄水平的一个或多个。
25．根据权利要求16所述的方法，其中实时更新实现金融目标的概率的可见指示，该方法进一步包括步骤：检测输入装置的占用；及
在占用输入装置的同时，重复步骤b、c、和d。
26．在金融分析系统中，一种向用户呈现各方面的金融风险以便帮助用户处理和控制金融风险的方法，该方法包括步骤：从用户接收金融目标；
接收包括概率分布基于的决定变量的一个或多个输入，概率分布表示具有一定量财产的用户对于时间的概率；
显示一个表明与一个或多个决定变量有关的短期金融风险的第一可见表示；及
显示一个根据概率分布表明不实现金融目标的风险的第二可见表示。
27．根据权利要求26所述的方法，显示一个表明与一个或多个决定变量有关的长期金融风险的第三可见表示。
28．根据权利要求26所述的方法，其中金融目标包括时间限度，及其中短期金融风险表示在相对于时间限度的少量时间期间在预定置信水平内可能损失的最大财产量。
29．根据权利要求26所述的方法，其中第二可见表示包括一个指示在具体时间限度下实现金融目标的概率的图标。
30．根据权利要求26所述的方法，其中同时显示第一、第二、和第三可见表示的每一个。
31．一种表明在适用金融产品组中的财产推荐分配的方法，该方法包括步骤：
接收一个或多个决定输入；
接收一组适用金融产品，每种金融产品具有有关的易变性；
按易变性排序适用金融产品组；及
对于适用金融产品组中的每种金融产品
根据一个或多个决定输入确定财产的推荐分配，和
显示财产推荐分配的图形指示，图形指示包括具有与推荐分配相对应的长度的图形段。
32．在一种金融顾问系统中，一种根据用户规定的约束条件更新推荐的方法，该方法包括步骤：
提供在金融产品适用组中的财产的当前推荐分配的图形指示，该图形指示包括每个具有与对于有关金融产品的当前推荐分配相对应的尺寸的图形段；
响应输入装置的致动，重新确定选择图形段的尺寸，以在尺寸上对应于用户希望分配；
在保持金融产品的分配与以用户希望分配固定的选择段相对应的同时，确定新推荐的分配；及
更新图形指示以表示新的推荐分配。
33．根据权利要求32所述的方法，其中确定新推荐分配的步骤进一步包括重新优化剩余金融产品组的步骤。
34．根据权利要求32所述的方法，其中确定新推荐分配的步骤在输入装置停用时发生。
35．根据权利要求32所述的方法，其中确定新推荐分配的步骤实时发生。
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